Chinese Economy Statut Quo September 2013 !
Shipments abroad fell 0.3 percent from a year earlier, the General Administration of Customs said yesterday in Beijing, behind 46 states in a Bloomberg News survey that had a median projection for a gain of 5.5 percent. The slowdown in trade resulted from a high comparison base last year, the agency said in a statement.
Chinese DGP
The statistics office will release GDP figures for the third quarter on October 18, The economy probably expanded 7.8 percent from a year earlier, according to a Bloomberg News survey, up percent pace in the second quarter 7.5.
"The government still wants to maintain the momentum of growth and on the basis of current data, it can achieve its objective, but with a very low margin of safety,"
The report may add to the difficulties of Premier Li Keqiang in defending goal of expanding 7.5 per cent by the government this year. The International Monetary Fund cut its global growth outlook last week that outflows are more destabilizing for emerging markets and warned that failure to pay the U.S. government would "seriously undermine" the global economy.
"It's pretty creepy," said Shen Jianguang, Hong Kong-based Asia chief economist at Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd., citing the impact of inflated export data that began last year, less than working days due to the timing of the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday and currency volatility in Southeast Asia.
"There was a recovery in exports since July in the United States and Europe, but it was quite low," said Shen. "The driving force for the recovery of China at this stage is still the housing and investment in infrastructure. "
Yuan gains
China is the biggest Oil importators since 2013.
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Exports to the United States rose 4.2 percent in September from a year earlier, slowing from 6.1 percent in August, while sales in South Korea, Taiwan and the European Union dropped, customs data show. Growth in shipments to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations has slipped 9.8 percent to 30.8 percent the previous month.
The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) of stocks rose 2.5 percent last week, the biggest weekly gain in a month, and the yuan rose 0.02 percent against the U.S. dollar in Shanghai.
Estimates for export growth in September ranged from 1 percent to 8.2 percent, against 7.2 percent increase in August and a gain a year earlier to 9.8 percent. On a seasonally adjusted basis, exports rose 5.3 percent year on year and 8.3 percent from August, the agency said.
Bank analysis
Comparing exports of September the previous year may underestimate the true picture because of the distortions of data inflated in 2012, analysts at Credit Agricole CIB and Citigroup Inc. said before the report. Regulators May repressed over-invoicing of exports used to cover capital inflows.
"Artificially depressed"
"Sometimes the data from a single month can not tell the true story, and there are also other factors," Zheng Yuesheng, spokesman for Customs, told reporters at a briefing yesterday when asked about the decline in exports. "I see this as a seasonal thing."
Dariusz Kowalczyk, chief economist and strategist at Credit Agricole in Hong Kong, said before the report that "the trade figures in the next two months, particularly in terms of exports, will not be a good reflection of the demand for Chinese products abroad or global economic activity, they are artificially depressed because of what happened last year. "
Kowalczyk had the lowest for exports in September to estimate the Bloomberg survey, projecting an increase of 1 percent.
Imports (CNFRIMPY) rose 7.4 percent last month compared to the previous year, customs data show, exceeding the median forecast of 7 percent in a Bloomberg survey. The trade surplus of $ 15.2 billion, compared with a median projection 26.25 billion and U.S. $ 28.5 in August
Healthy Image
While imports used for processing and re-export "still not doing very well, those that feed in its own economy of China continues to grow very strong, reflecting an image still quite healthy in terms of demand," said Louis Kuijs, chief China economist at
Royal Bank of Scotland Plc in Hong Kong.
Imports and Ecommerce
Imports of oil daily from China rose to a record last month. Purchases rose "because of the growing economy and the increasing demand for resources," said Zheng.
ecommerce in China is still booming, and many shops imports goods can not be control by the policy.
source
In addition to fewer working days of the month, the stronger yuan also "eroded the competitiveness of China's exports," Liu Li-Gang, Director Greater China economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Hong Kong, said in a note yesterday.
The yuan has risen about 2.7 percent against the U.S. dollar in the 12 months to September, while Asian currencies, including the yen, Singapore and Taiwan dollars and Indonesian rupiah fell.
Port Flow
Risks
There are still "risks to the Chinese economy," wrote economist Liu and Hao Zhou. Although there has been speculation of slowing trade in September has over-invoicing of last year, "our preliminary report showed that the port speed indeed slowed in major banks last month," said they.
The IMF said on Oct. 8 that global growth will be 2.9 percent this year and 3.6 percent next year, compared to July, projections of 3.1 percent for 2013 and 3 8 percent for 2014.
While Zheng warned at a conference of the pursuit of "downward pressure" on trade, he said an investigation by the customs administration of approximately 2,000 exporters showed overseas shipments "will maintain a stable growth in the next two or three months, "according to comments on the controls and costs.
Premier Li said last week that gross domestic product grew more than 7.5 percent in the first nine months of 2013, putting China on track to meet its full-year target at the same rate .
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